Hacksaw Enters Prediction Markets as Malta Expands License and US Rules Evolve

Hacksaw Group has launched a business-to-business (B2B) prediction markets platform after expanding its Malta Gaming Authority (MGA) authorization, marking a significant move by an established casino game supplier into one of gambling's most contested emerging sectors.

Announced on October 15, the platform lets gambling operators introduce peer-to-peer prediction markets using Hacksaw's existing technology and distribution infrastructure. The company's Maltese subsidiary, HGMT Limited, has received an extension of its B2B Critical Gaming Supply License to cover Type 3 Gaming Services, alongside its existing Type 1 authorization.

The expansion comes as US regulators attempt to distinguish traditional casino gambling from exchange-traded event contracts. On October 19, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) implemented a rule that excludes qualifying casino and sportsbook wagers from the federal definition of a swap, while opening consultation on a separate proposal on prediction markets.

Together, the developments illustrate two competing forces shaping the sector. Growing commercial interest in prediction market technology and continuing disagreement over how these products should be regulated.

Why Hacksaw Is Moving Beyond Traditional Casino Games

Hacksaw is best known for its online slots, scratch cards and crash games. Its new prediction markets platform represents an expansion of that established business rather than the launch of a competing consumer-facing exchange.

Instead of attempting to attract traders directly, Hacksaw intends to supply the underlying technology to existing operators.

Participating businesses would retain their brands, customer relationships and player-facing platforms while using Hacksaw's infrastructure to introduce peer-to-peer event markets.

This model could lower the technical barriers to entry for operators that want to explore prediction markets without developing their own trading systems.
It also allows Hacksaw to extend its commercial relationships into a new product category.

Ana Vrabic Verdir, Group CEO of Hacksaw Group, described the opportunity in the company's October 15 announcement,

"Prediction markets represent a compelling new opportunity at the intersection of technology, entertainment and market participation."

The company said the platform was developed using its existing technology and development resources, without requiring a separate large-scale investment program.

However, Hacksaw has not announced specific customer launches, initial operating jurisdictions or revenue expectations for the new business.

What Does Malta's Type 3 Gaming Authorization Mean?

The MGA's licensing framework distinguishes between different gambling products according to how games operate and how providers generate revenue.

Hacksaw's existing Type 1 authorization relates to games of chance played against the house, including conventional casino products.

Type 3 covers gambling activities in which participants compete against one another and the operator does not take the underlying gaming risk. Instead, the operator typically earns a commission or other fee.

Examples include peer-to-peer poker, bingo and betting exchanges.

The extension of HGMT Limited's critical gaming supply license therefore provides a regulatory basis for supplying peer-to-peer prediction market infrastructure within Malta's applicable gaming framework.

Importantly, this is a B2B supplier authorization, not a universal license allowing any operator to offer prediction markets in any country.

A casino or sportsbook seeking to introduce the product would still need to establish whether the proposed activity is lawful in its target jurisdiction and whether it possesses the necessary operating authorization.

That distinction is especially relevant because prediction markets face different regulatory interpretations internationally.

The Technology Challenge, Prediction Markets Need Liquidity

Unlike a traditional casino game, a peer-to-peer prediction market depends on participants taking opposing positions on an event.

A new platform with limited trading activity may struggle to offer competitive prices or provide sufficient opportunities for users to enter and exit positions.
This creates a commercial challenge for smaller operators entering the sector.

Hacksaw says its platform includes a connected volume framework designed to aggregate participation across its operator network.

The intended benefit is to give participating businesses access to broader trading activity rather than requiring each operator to establish an independent market from scratch.

If implemented successfully, this approach could make prediction markets more accessible to existing casino and sportsbook businesses.

However, the announcement does not establish that the platform has already achieved significant liquidity or commercial adoption.

The actual performance of its connected infrastructure will depend on operator participation, customer demand, available markets and regulatory permissions.

US Regulators Draw a New Line Between Gambling and Financial Trading

Hacksaw's announcement arrives during an important period for US prediction market regulation.

On October 19, the CFTC's interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling products from the definition of a swap took effect following publication in the Federal Register.

The rule clarifies that qualifying traditional gambling products, including state or tribal regulated sportsbook wagers and casino games, do not become federally regulated financial derivatives simply because their payouts depend on uncertain outcomes.

The CFTC distinguishes conventional gambling from derivatives partly through market structure.

Traditional sportsbooks generally offer wagers directly to customers at odds the operator sets. Exchange-traded event contracts, by contrast, may involve transactions between market participants through organized trading facilities.

The distinction matters because prediction market companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket have become central to disputes over whether certain event contracts fall under federal financial regulation or state gambling laws.

The CFTC's rule does not settle those disputes or establish nationwide legality for sports-related event contracts.

Instead, it clarifies the agency's interpretation of the boundary between traditional gambling products and derivatives.

A Separate CFTC Proposal Could Shape Prediction Markets in 2027

Alongside the gambling exclusion, the CFTC published a separate proposed rule that would expressly include certain event contracts within the definition of a swap.

The proposal addresses contracts involving sports, politics, cultural events and weather-related outcomes, among other categories. Unlike the casino gambling exclusion, this proposed measure has not yet taken effect. Both documents are open for public comments until November 18, 2026. The consultation is particularly relevant for established gambling businesses considering prediction market products.

A platform operating under a Maltese gaming authorization and an exchange operating under US derivatives rules may offer economically similar exposure to future events while being subject to substantially different legal obligations. For operators, these differences could affect licensing, market access, compliance costs, consumer protections and taxation. The outcome of the US regulatory debate could therefore influence how suppliers structure future products and which jurisdictions they prioritize.

Can Traditional Casino Suppliers Compete With Kalshi and Polymarket?

Hacksaw's strategy differs from the direct-to-consumer models associated with Kalshi and Polymarket. Rather than competing primarily for individual traders, the company is positioning itself as an infrastructure provider for existing gambling operators.

That distinction could become important if casino groups and sportsbooks decide that prediction markets are commercially attractive but technically difficult to develop internally.

An established supplier may offer advantages through existing integrations, distribution relationships and knowledge of regulated gaming environments.
However, a successful prediction market requires more than a trading interface.

Operators must consider liquidity, market integrity, event settlement, participant eligibility, suspicious trading activity and the legal classification of each product.

Political and sports-related contracts can also introduce concerns about insider information and conflicts of interest.

Recent US congressional election trading research illustrates these risks. According to Anti-Corruption Data Collective research reported by Reuters, trading on 2026 congressional election markets exceeded $220 million by September 30.

The same research found that the largest 1% of wallets on Polymarket's international platform accounted for approximately 70% of congressional trading volume.

Although concentration does not establish manipulation, it raises questions about market structure and the reliability of prices as indicators of public expectations.

For suppliers entering the sector, credible trading infrastructure and effective compliance controls may prove just as important as commercial distribution.

Malta and the United States Are Taking Different Regulatory Approaches

Hacksaw's expanded authorization also illustrates how differently regulators are approaching prediction markets. Malta's Type 3 framework provides an established gaming classification for peer-to-peer activities such as betting exchanges.

The United States is examining certain event contracts through federal derivatives law, while state authorities continue to challenge products they consider equivalent to gambling.

These approaches are not necessarily interchangeable. A product authorized as gambling technology in Malta does not automatically qualify as a financial derivative in the United States. Equally, a federally regulated US event contract does not automatically become lawful under another country's gambling rules.

The result is an increasingly fragmented international market. For suppliers operating across multiple jurisdictions, the ability to adapt products to different legal frameworks may become a significant competitive advantage.

Prediction Markets Could Become a New Revenue Category for iGaming Suppliers

Hacksaw's announcement suggests that prediction markets are beginning to attract interest beyond specialist exchanges. Traditional casino suppliers already provide the technology behind slots, live casino products, instant-win games and other gambling formats. Prediction markets could become another category within these business-to-business ecosystems. Hacksaw cited an estimate from brokerage firm Bernstein suggesting annual prediction market trading volumes could approach $1 trillion by 2030. That figure is a market forecast, not a confirmed outcome or a prediction of Hacksaw's future revenue. The more immediate commercial question is whether gambling operators will adopt peer-to-peer event products at scale. Regulatory uncertainty could slow adoption, particularly where sports and political prediction markets remain subject to litigation or restrictions.

Nevertheless, the emergence of licensed supplier infrastructure indicates that established iGaming companies are beginning to treat prediction markets as a potential long-term business opportunity.

Prediction Markets Are Becoming Part of the Casino Technology Industry

Hacksaw's expansion is significant because it moves prediction markets beyond the business models of specialist trading platforms.

An established casino supplier is now offering infrastructure designed to bring event-based markets into existing gambling operator networks.

That could eventually change how prediction markets are distributed, particularly if operators can introduce them through familiar technology partners rather than building separate exchanges.

But the commercial opportunity is developing faster than international regulatory consensus.

Malta's expanded authorization provides Hacksaw with a defined B2B licensing framework. The CFTC's October 19 rule clarifies the treatment of traditional gambling in the United States, while the separate event-contract proposal remains under consultation.

Neither development establishes a universal regulatory model.

For 2027, the important question is whether prediction markets will evolve into a recognized product category within regulated gambling, remain primarily a financial-market activity, or develop along both paths in different jurisdictions.
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Hacksaw's entry suggests that the gambling industry is preparing for prediction markets to become a permanent part of its technology ecosystem. Whether regulators permit that expansion across international markets remains the decisive question.

References (APA 7th Edition)

Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (2026, October 9). CFTC issues interim final rule excluding certain activity from the definition of swap.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (2026, October 19). Further definition of “swap” to exclude casino-style gambling products [Interim final rule]. Federal Register, 91, 65969–65979.
Hacksaw Group. (2026, October 15). Hacksaw Group launches B2B prediction markets platform, expanding technology and distribution ecosystem.
Malta Gaming Authority. (n.d.). Game providers and back office.
Malta Gaming Authority. (n.d.). What are the different types of games that are licensable by the Authority?